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WEEKLY UPDATE · WEEK 6
Post-Valero. How our board performed and what moved.
The final pre-Masters board is live. We processed 60 expert sentiment entries from seven sources, anchored by a Brad Faxon interview recorded two days after his visit to Augusta National. Nine players raised. Seven lowered. One removed. Two added. This is not a tweak. This is a rethink three days before the first tee shot.
J.J. Spaun won the Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio, rallying from four back on Sunday. He was not on our board entering the week. Tiger Woods declined his Masters invitation and is stepping away from golf after his March 27 DUI arrest. Phil Mickelson is also out, citing a personal matter. The field is set at 91 players.
The Data Golf Newsletter noted that every Masters winner over the last four years absolutely dominated the spring statistics before arriving at Augusta. Nobody has done that in 2026. The two best statistical players this spring are Masters rookies: Jacob Bridgeman and Chris Gotterup. Combined with the LIV contingent arriving in peak form (Rahm and DeChambeau both playing the best golf of their LIV tenures), there are two dozen players with a legitimate case for a green jacket.
Helped Their Case
Won the Valspar. Climbed to OWGR #5. Faxon praised his pin-high distance control. From mid-board to first-page favorite. Iron play is the single best predictor of Augusta success.
Brad Faxon called him the best putter on tour. Leading Data Golf Points. No weakness in his game. Faxon said he would not be surprised if Bridgeman became the first rookie to win the Masters since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979.
Faxon compared his swing to young Jack Nicklaus. Second in Data Golf Points. Two wins in his first six starts. The length, the lower ball flight, the cut he prefers. Faxon says it will not be a disadvantage.
Top 10 in his first two Masters. Faxon compared his tempo to Sam Snead and his swing to Steve Elkington. Said he would be more surprised NOT to see Aberg on the leaderboard. Two sources picked him to win outright.
Two sources picked him to win outright. Faxon saw him at Augusta this week with coach James Ridyard, motivated as if he was 21. Lost the 2025 Masters playoff to Rory. 15 top-25 finishes in 20 Masters starts. Should have been on the board weeks ago.
Hurt Their Case
The biggest fall on the board. Putting collapsed from 3rd on tour in 2024 to 76th in 2026. Missed a cut, then placed 41st. The SportsLine model fades him. In a 75-minute Brad Faxon Masters preview, Schauffele got one passing mention before being talked over.
Back injury. T46 at the Players Championship. Odds drifting from +800 to +1200. His own putting coach, Brad Faxon, picked him to win, which prevents a total collapse. But three of five analytical sources are bearish. The question is no longer whether the Grand Slam freed him. It is whether the back lets him compete.
Withdrew from the Valero Texas Open with a back injury. Status for Thursday unknown. Removed from the board entirely. Faxon said if Morikawa were healthy, he would be a first-page favorite. He is not healthy.
Sentiment Changes
The 2026 Masters rookie class may be the strongest in Augusta history. Jacob Bridgeman leads Data Golf Points. Chris Gotterup is second. Marco Penge has ball speeds over 190 and composure that drew Faxon comparisons to Gordon Sargent. Ben Griffin won three times in late 2025. Jake Knapp has elite distance. Tom McKibbin won the DP World Tour's flagship event.
Five of these six rookies are under 27. Two of them (Bridgeman and Gotterup) have outperformed every non-rookie on tour this season by Data Golf's accumulation metric. The last time the DG Points leader entering April was a Masters debutant was never. It has never happened.
Bradley Chamblee called it the best American rookie class since the 1997 generation of Tiger, Justin Leonard, and David Duval. Faxon went further: he said it is the best overall rookie class he has seen in 40 years of attending the Masters.
Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau enter Augusta in the best form of their LIV tenures. Rahm won a LIV event and carries +2.69 adjusted strokes gained, above the threshold set by every Masters winner since 2022. DeChambeau won consecutive LIV events including a playoff over Rahm. His draw is a genuine advantage on at least seven Augusta holes.
Faxon raised two concerns. For Rahm: the media pressure, the European fines, the unhappiness with LIV treatment. "He is going to have to steady the ship when he gets there." For DeChambeau: his scientific putting method may not mesh with Augusta feel. Both are legitimate factors. Neither is enough to override the ball-striking data.
Accuracy Check
Tracked in Field
8
Top-10 Rate
Valero accuracy tracking will be added to the accuracy page separately.
Winner Called?
No. J.J. Spaun was not on our board.
Gotterup and Bridgeman confirmation. Both received the strongest expert endorsements of any players in the field.
Morikawa removal. Ranked 3rd on our board entering the week. The back injury forced a complete board reset.
Looking Ahead
Augusta National Golf Club
Thursday, April 9. The 90th Masters Tournament. Par 72, 7,545 yards. 91 players. No Tiger. No Phil. No clear favorite for the first time since 2019.
Scheffler is the +500 betting favorite but has not played a competitive round since the Players. McIlroy is defending but arrived with a back injury. The market is wider than any Masters in recent memory. Six players have odds between +1000 and +1600. Another ten sit between +2200 and +4000.
The model says this is a ball-striker's Masters. Augusta's post-2021 data shows accuracy-based players outperforming bombers by 0.1 strokes per round. Around-the-green play has driven more scoring variance than putting in each of the last five years. The winner's putting has been the worst statistical category in each of those five years.
Our board is locked. The next update will be live scoring from Amen Corner.
Players to Watch
Part of the Predictor Network
3-factor model: Data Golf analytics · Augusta course fit · Expert sentiment · Updated weekly
Masters Score = 50% Data Golf win probability + 30% Augusta Fit + 20% expert sentiment