Masters Predictor

T24 at Arnold Palmer was a bad putting week on a course that does not suit him as well as Augusta. His ball-striking numbers were fine. The iron play into Augusta's par 4s is still the best in the field by a wide margin. One outlier result from a player of this caliber is noise. He stays at #1.

WD at Arnold Palmer means no data point from week one. The T2 at last year's Masters is still the loudest signal in this field. His short game improvements are real, not theoretical. Length off the tee turns the par 5s into birdie factories, and he is finding more fairways than at any point in his career. The Sunday history at Augusta is the only knock.

Won at Augusta in 2023 and the game that got him there has not left. On LIV, the competitive field is thinner, but his ball-striking numbers are still elite by any metric. Augusta rewards the same profile he has always had: power off the tee, surgical iron play, creativity around bentgrass greens. He cannot use Arnold Palmer as a tune-up, but a player of this quality does not need five pre-Masters starts. At +1000 with a 13.5% model probability, this is the second-largest edge on the board.

T3 at Arnold Palmer at -12, outperforming the field by 10 strokes over Schauffele. Bay Hill rewards the same approach profile as Augusta. Ball-striking into firm bentgrass greens under pressure is what he does, and the T2 in his first Masters start was not a fluke. At +1200 with an 11% model probability against 7.7% implied, this is strong value.

T24 at Arnold Palmer after winning Genesis — the form is inconsistent in exactly the events that matter. He still has the complete game and Augusta fit scores elite. But at +700 with a model probability that barely clears the market, the edge has narrowed. Two wins in 2024 and the game is there. The question is whether the 2026 version shows up in April.

5th at Arnold Palmer at -11. The iron play delivered exactly as the model projected. Augusta is an iron player's course and no one on this board has better credentials from 175-200 yards. The putting on bentgrass has trended up all season. Arnold Palmer was confirmation, not a ceiling. If the flat stick cooperates for four days, top-5 upside is real.

T13 at Arnold Palmer is fine but not a statement. The short game that plagued 2024 is slowly recovering, and Augusta punishes scrambling deficiencies more than almost any course on tour. The ball-striking is elite but the wedge-and-bunker work needs to hold for four days. A patient course management week could get him into the top 10.

T6 at Arnold Palmer at -10, outperforming his model rank by 6 spots in the best field outside Augusta. That is not a fluke. He moves up significantly in this model update: the ball-striking at Bay Hill looked like an Augusta contender, not a hopeful qualifier. At +4500 with a model probability of 4.5% against 2.2% implied, this is the single largest edge on the board.

Eight major wins and a T2 at Augusta. Koepka has made a career out of slowing his heart rate when the stakes are highest, and Augusta Sundays demand exactly that. This is a player who has won at Bethpage, Bellerive, Kiawah, and Brookline. Augusta is not too big for him. At +2500, the major pedigree is underpriced.

MC at Arnold Palmer nudges him back. He never beats himself, and Augusta rewards that discipline more than any course on tour. Seven starts, never missed a cut at Augusta. The knock is upside — he grinds top-15s while others go low. But Augusta Sundays are about avoiding the big number, and nobody avoids big numbers like Cantlay.

The bomber profile has a specific Augusta upside: he takes the par 5s off the table by driving them into positions that do not exist for normal-length hitters. The short game under pressure at Augusta has not fully materialized yet — his best finish in seven starts is T34. But the model sees the distance advantage as underweighted at +2800, especially with his recent LIV form trending sharply upward.

MC at Arnold Palmer, but one missed cut does not erase what he is on Augusta National. His wedge game from 125 yards in is the best on tour, and those soft receptive greens are the perfect canvas for it. T6 last year was not a ceiling. The question is length off the tee on the par 5s, where he gives up strokes to the bombers.

Shotgun Start's sleeper pick for Augusta and the ball-striking numbers back it up. 49th at Arnold Palmer is a tick against him, but the iron play has been quietly elite all season and his bentgrass putting is better than his reputation suggests. Seven Masters starts without cracking the top 15 is the concern. If he figures out the par 5 scoring, the ceiling moves from top 15 to top 5.

Finished T2 at Augusta in 2022 and has been a cut machine there since. Five starts, five made cuts. MC at Arnold Palmer was a step back after a T20 at Genesis. The iron play profiles well and accuracy compensates for distance. Augusta history counts for something. The course rewards memory, and Im has built a real bank of it.

MC at Arnold Palmer after a strong Pebble Beach. The Ryder Cup captaincy has him playing with purpose and ten Masters starts means he knows Augusta cold. The putter is a weapon on bentgrass. The limiting factor is distance — he cannot reach the par 5s in two the way the top tier can. But Augusta rewards avoiding bogeys as much as making birdies.

Won at Torrey Pines in January and then MC at Arnold Palmer — the form is streaky. Thirteen Masters starts and a T2 on the resume. Day knows Augusta better than most players ranked above him. The short game creativity around those greens is still elite when the body cooperates. At 38 he is not the athlete he was, but Augusta is a course where feel matters more than speed.

Twenty-two Augusta starts. A T4 in 2023. Elite approach play on a course that rewards nothing else as heavily. The market has Rose at 125-1 because the OWGR is 58. That is precisely the bet. He missed the cut at Bay Hill, but the iron game still grades top-20 on tour and bentgrass putting is underrated. Augusta history and iron play matter more here than one bad week in Orlando. At those odds, Rose is the most Augusta-specific value on this board.

T11 at Arnold Palmer at -6. The swing is still beautiful at 45 and twenty-two Masters starts means he knows every slope, every grain direction, every pin position at Augusta National. The issue is the rest of the game is not what it was. Augusta is the one course where knowledge can compensate for decline, and Scott has more of it than anyone.

The physical tools scream Augusta contender. Length, ball-striking ability, touch around the greens when he is on. The problem is the when he is on part. Finau in 2026 has been a coin flip between top 10 and missed cut. Augusta does not forgive that kind of variance. T5 in 2019 proves the ceiling, but the floor has been too visible this year.

Quietly stringing together solid results and the iron play grades out well for Augusta. Two starts is not much to work with and the T30 last year was forgettable. But the form is trending right, the approach numbers are climbing, and he is the kind of player who could show up at Augusta with nothing to lose and post a surprising Thursday-Friday score. Not a contender. A name to watch.

Big hitter who can overpower Augusta's par 5s, but everything else is a question mark. One start and a missed cut. T38 at Arnold Palmer is fine but not a statement. The driving distance is real but Augusta asks more questions than just how far. The iron play is inconsistent, the short game is a work in progress, and the experts are not talking about him.