BAY HILL CLUB & LODGE, ORLANDO, FL • MARCH 6-9, 2026
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Bay Hill Club & Lodge • Par 70 • 7,466 yards • $20,000,000
Defending champion: Scottie Scheffler
Arrows (↑↓) show over/underperformance vs. our pre-tournament model rank.
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Bay Hill plays harder than its par 70 suggests. The layout punishes inaccuracy with water on nine holes and tight tree-lined corridors that eliminate the driver-everywhere approach. Par-4 scoring defines the week — four of the five hardest holes are par 4s, and the 18th has broken more leads than any hole on tour not named Amen Corner.
Key Holes
Par 4 • 484 yds
The Finishing Hole
A pond runs the entire left side of the fairway and fronts the green. Players must carry water twice. The most demanding closer on the PGA Tour. Players who lead late either win big or collapse here.
Par 5 • 529 yds
Reachable Risk
Reachable in two for the field's longest hitters, but a pond right of the green makes aggressive second shots a gamble. Where tournament leads are built and lost in the same round.
Par 4 • 423 yds
The Tightest Tee Shot
Trees crowd both sides off the tee. The approach must be struck from a precise window or the player is chipping from the rough. One of the quietest card-wreckers on the course.
Par 5 • 543 yds
Opening Par 5
The first real birdie opportunity of the back nine setup. A classic three-shotter for most of the field, it plays much longer into the wind. Accurate iron play into the elevated green is the key.
Par 4 • 468 yds
The Long Grind
The hardest par 4 on the front nine and consistently one of the toughest holes in the field's scoring stats. A right-to-left dogleg demands precise positioning off the tee before a demanding approach into a green that slopes hard toward the water on the right.
Par 3 • 219 yds
Late-Round Par 3
A long par 3 over water that plays differently every day depending on wind direction off the lake. Made more difficult by the mental weight of being two holes from the finish. A bogey here with the lead has ended Bay Hill weeks.
What Wins Here
DRIVING ACCURACY
Most important stat at Bay Hill. Fairway corridors are punishing and water is a constant threat off the tee.
APPROACH QUALITY
Long par 4s demand elite iron play from 175-220 yards. Players in the top 20 in approach gain almost half a shot per round here.
WATER MANAGEMENT
Nine holes feature significant water. Conservative lines off the tee cost distance but protect against doubles.
PAR-4 SCORING
Four of the five hardest holes are par 4s. Winning Bay Hill means going even or better on the par 4s versus the field.
Model: Data Golf baseline_history_fit, 60k simulations. Course Fit: Weighted strokes gained profile matched to venue-specific demands. Sentiment: 12 sources.